The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy requires vast quantities of critical minerals, including copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel. However, as easily accessible deposits decline, mineral extraction may become increasingly energy-intensive and costly.1-4
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Declining ore grades and rising energy requirements could pose significant challenges to mineral production later this century. This raises concerns about whether the energy transition risks exchanging dependence on finite fossil fuels with reliance on finite mineral resources, and the sustainability of such transition in the long term.1-4
Hidden Energy Cost of Mining
Demand for critical minerals will remain robust across every scenario, almost doubling by 2040, with lithium experiencing the highest growth, followed by graphite, rare earths, and nickel.2
Cobalt demand is expected to be moderate due to the rapid adoption of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Copper will experience the highest growth in volume owing to its key role in next-generation technologies and electricity networks.2
While overall supplies of several crucial energy minerals could meet the projected demand, lithium and copper remain major exceptions, where anticipated mined supply could not meet the projected demand in 2035, with implied deficits of 25% for copper.2
Declining ore grades are one of the major reasons behind the supply deficit of copper. They also increase energy consumption, raising production costs. Moreover, as ore grades decrease, the emissions and water intensity required to produce one ton of metal will increase, which adversely affects the environment.2,3
Could Mineral Production Become Constrained?
A paper published in Energy Strategy Reviews developed a system dynamics model to simulate different energy transition scenarios and the related additional production energy required as resources decline in quality by 2100.1
For the best-case climate outcome, the Net Zero by 2050 scenario, renewable energy growth accelerates, and fossil fuel demand decreases, resulting in rapid growth in demand for critical mineral resources, specifically cobalt and copper, despite increasing end-of-life (EoL) recycling rates (EoL RR).1
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Net Zero by 2050 Scenario
Declining ore grades lead to a continual increase in production energy demand, with 7 EJ/year for all critical minerals and 3 EJ/year for the selected metals. If similar growth in production energy occurred for every mineral, the additional energy required could peak at 16 EJ/year as fossil fuel Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) also decreases.1
The figure represents the production energy in addition to that arising from economic demand, attributable to declining ore grades and EROI, designated as "additional energy demand". While EROI decreases, fossil fuel production is not constrained in the scenario.1
Ultimately, mineral production becomes constrained, and the supply-demand ratio starts to fall: molybdenum by 2075, zinc by 2090, cobalt by 2045 and copper by 2080. Except for zinc, the continued production of every mineral becomes unviable by the end of the century.1
Replacing One Resource Dependency with Another
The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy may replace one form of resource dependency with another. Since the Industrial Revolution, human society has heavily relied on coal, oil, and natural gas.1
However, the easiest and cheapest fossil fuel reserves have largely been exploited, making further extraction increasingly energy-intensive and expensive. Similarly, the shift toward renewable energy technologies will require huge quantities of critical minerals such as lithium, copper, and molybdenum.1
Annual production of these minerals must increase sixfold to achieve the Net Zero by 2050 scenario. Studies indicate that while some mineral resources like copper may meet demand for decades, others like molybdenum could face exhaustion within a century.1
Research also highlights that environmental, social, and governance factors could pose higher risks to mineral supplies than actual resource depletion. Thus, ambitious renewable energy expansion could result in extremely high mineral-production energy requirements in the second half of this century.1
Conversely, production of oil and gas resources will become constrained later this century if fossil fuels continue to be retained in the energy mix at high levels. Thus, strategies like end-of-life recycling and improving energy efficiency are crucial for a sustainable energy transition.1
Effectiveness of Recycling and Innovation
Recycling and innovation can reduce pressure on mineral resources, but they cannot fully address rising demand. While recycling reduces the need for primary raw material production, it requires energy, and the amount depends on mineral concentration and the difficulty of material recovery.1
For instance, recycling copper from end-of-life products can require energy comparable to primary production. Thus, recycling alone cannot immediately meet rapidly growing mineral demand.1
Alternative battery chemistries like LFP can reduce dependence on cobalt and nickel. Mineral substitution is also possible, with alternatives available for zinc, molybdenum, and cobalt.1,2
However, copper remains difficult to replace owing to its superior electrical properties. Yet, substituting one finite resource for another does not eliminate the concerns of long-term sustainability.1
Improved extraction technologies, such as direct lithium extraction (DLE), can reduce freshwater consumption and avoid brine evaporation.4
Overall, recycling and technological innovations are crucial for improving resource efficiency, but they must be complemented by other strategies like substitution to address future mineral scarcity.1,2,4
Do We Need to Rethink Energy Demand?
Beyond replacing fossil fuels with renewable technologies, a sustainable energy transition also requires greater material efficiency, longer-lasting products, and reductions in unnecessary energy consumption.
Rising demand for critical minerals, declining ore grades, and increasing extraction energy requirements highlight practical challenges to long-term sustainability. While recycling, mineral substitution, improved extraction technologies, and energy efficiency can reduce resource pressures, they cannot eliminate the need for primary mineral production entirely.
However, projections of future mineral shortages are model-dependent scenarios rather than firm predictions of inevitable depletion. Thus, the transition to renewable energy must not be considered inherently unsustainable.
Its long-term viability depends on responsible resource management, technological innovation, and more efficient consumption. Ultimately, the transition to renewable energy must consider energy consumption and environmental impacts to achieve long-term sustainability.
References and Further Reading
- Grace, W. (2026). Critical minerals and the energy transition. Energy Strategy Reviews, 63, 102039. DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2026.102039, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X26000052
- Outlook [Online] Available at https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/outlook (Accessed on 04 November 2026)
- Overview of outlook for key minerals [Online] Available at https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2025/overview-of-outlook-for-key-minerals (Accessed on 04 November 2026)
- Vera, M. L., Torres, W. R., Galli, C. I., Chagnes, A., & Flexer, V. (2023). Environmental impact of direct lithium extraction from brines. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 4(3), 149-165. DOI: 10.1038/s43017-022-00387-5, https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-022-00387-5
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