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The key controlling factors for rockburst risk in coal mines have been identified using a factor-reduction-based method. This method is intended to simplify risk evaluation by proposing targeted prevention measures, while improving interpretability and reducing redundant factors. The findings were published in Scientific Reports.
Study: Study on the factor reduction of rockburst risk in coal mines. Image Credit: Maxim Gutsal/Shutterstock.com
Rockburst Risk in Coal Mines
Rockbursts are severe dynamic hazards in underground coal mining caused by the sudden release of accumulated elastic strain energy in coal-rock masses under in situ and mining-induced stresses, leading to violent failures, equipment damage, and safety threats.
In China, rockbursts have become more frequent and destructive with deeper mining and “three-high” conditions (high stress, temperature, and gas), affecting 138 mines across 15 provinces. Despite decades of research since the 1980s, existing rockburst risk assessments have become overly complex, incorporating numerous overlapping factors that reduce evaluation accuracy and hinder identification of key risk drivers.
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This study addresses these challenges by employing a factor reduction method to simplify the evaluation framework and isolate the most critical factors influencing rockburst risk. This approach enhances both the precision and practicality of risk assessments, enabling more effective prevention and control strategies in coal mine safety management.
Factor Reduction and Analysis
The study employs an integrated approach combining theoretical analysis, mathematical modeling, and extensive field testing to investigate the geological and mining factors influencing rockburst hazards.
Seven influencing factors related to rockburst induction were selected for detailed analysis based on prior research and engineering practice. These include mining depth, coal seam thickness variation, geological structures (such as faults and folds), floor coal thickness, pressure-relief conditions, coal burst sounds, and roof lithology.
To address factor redundancy and overlap, the researchers applied a factor-reduction algorithm grounded in factor-space theory. This method quantitatively identifies the degree to which each factor determines rockburst risk, thereby allowing the elimination of less significant or redundant factors. The procedure involves measuring the degree of determination (d) of each factor and progressively filtering down to the most decisive contributors to risk.
The robustness of the factor reduction method was tested using real-world data collected from the ZF1420 working face of the Yadian Coal Mine in Shaanxi Province. This mine exhibits typical geological conditions, including variable coal seam thickness, complex structural influences, and roof-floor characteristics that influence rockburst propensity. The evaluation provided a risk classification and informed recommendations for tailored prevention and control measures.
Key Influencing Factors Identified
The factor reduction analysis identified coal seam thickness variation, geological structures, and floor coal thickness as the primary factors controlling rockburst risk in coal mines. While mining depth is traditionally emphasized, its independent influence diminished when tectonic stress was considered, due to overlap with geological structures.
Abrupt changes in coal seam thickness cause stress redistributions that heighten local stress concentrations, making thickness variation more critical than absolute seam thickness for rockburst initiation.
Geological structures such as faults and folds concentrate tectonic stresses, especially horizontal compression, dominating energy accumulation and triggering dynamic failures. Floor coal thickness emerged as a decisive factor: thick floor coal represents a weak zone prone to instability and energy release under dynamic loading, exacerbating rockburst severity, unlike thinner or rock floors that bear load better.
Pressure-relief methods such as large-diameter drilling, blasting, and hydraulic fracturing effectively modify stress fields to reduce rockburst risk by allowing gradual energy release. The application at Yadian Coal Mine categorized the ZF1420 working face as a moderate risk, a finding validated by traditional methods, leading to graded prevention strategies ranging from local relief to comprehensive controls and evacuations.
Some conventional factors, including mining depth and roof properties, were excluded due to redundancy, demonstrating the factor reduction method’s utility in isolating dominant factors and simplifying risk assessment.
Targeted Risk Mitigation Strategies
The research confirms that the factor reduction method based on factor space theory is a powerful tool for distilling complex, overlapping influences into a manageable set of key controlling factors that drive rockburst risks in coal mines. It improves the accuracy and interpretability of risk evaluation while minimizing redundant information and procedural complexity.
Coal seam thickness variation, geological structures, and floor coal thickness are quantitatively validated as the three principal geological controlling factors for rockbursts. By focusing on these, the study offers a refined hazard assessment model that enables explicit inference and clear risk classification of mining faces.
The practical applicability of the approach was demonstrated via its deployment in the Yadian Coal Mine, where risk assessments matched field realities. The study's findings support more targeted, effective prevention and control measures tailored to different risk levels, strengthening safety management in mines with similar geological conditions.
This work not only advances the scientific understanding of rockburst causation but also provides mining engineers and safety managers with a streamlined, theory-backed methodology for rapid and accurate rockburst risk assessment, contributing to safer mining operations in increasingly challenging underground environments.
Journal Reference
Zhang J., Wang B., et al. (2026). Study on the factor reduction of rockburst risk in coal mines. Scientific Reports. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-57931-2.