ESAI Energy forecasts a growing gasoline glut in the Atlantic Basin, which will pressure gasoline prices for the next several years. This bearish view is a marked shift from the uncertainty about gasoline supply to the East Coast just a few months ago.
The uncertainty has been quelled by Delta Airlines' purchase of the Trainer refinery and a possible deal with the Carlyle Group that will delay or avert the closure of Sunoco's Philadelphia refinery.
The East Coast gasoline drama is only one episode in the U.S. transformation of Atlantic Basin gasoline, diesel and jet fuel markets. As ESAI Energy explains in its new study, U.S. One-Two Punch: East Coast Spurns Europe and Gulf Coast Targets Latin America, Gulf Coast refiners are also changing the U.S. role in the Atlantic Basin. The refinery deals in the East Coast are just accelerating this transformation.
For those suppliers outside the U.S. looking to place surplus product in the U.S. East Coast or Latin America, Gulf Coast refiners are the main competitive threat. The North America oil "boom" and the state of the art oil refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast are all playing a role in the continued emergence of the U.S. as a net exporter of petroleum products. As a result of the rising Gulf Coast surplus and falling East Coast deficit, the two markets' total net exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel will double from 320,000 b/d in 2011 to more than 700,000 b/d by 2015
U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are sending more product to the East Coast market than they did before the recession. All the while, their exports to Latin America are growing. "European gasoline exporters seeking to place surplus barrels either in traditional markets like the U.S. or emerging Latin American export markets such as Brazil face growing competition from U.S. Gulf Coast refiners," says ESAI Energy Principal Andrew Reed. The growing availability of products from the U.S. Gulf Coast also calls into question the urgency of refining investment in Latin America.
For further information about or to purchase U.S. One-Two Punch: East Coast Spurns Europe and Gulf Coast Targets Latin America - ESAI's Analysis of the Atlantic Basin Gasoline, Diesel and Jet Fuel Markets 2012-2025 contact Tom Lovett at781-245-2036 or [email protected].
About ESAI: Energy Security Analysis has assisted companies and governments around the world identify and capitalize on opportunities in the increasingly interconnected and complex global energy market for more than 25 years.
Media Contact: Tom Lovett ESAI Energy, 781-245-2036, [email protected]
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SOURCE ESAI Energy